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NATURAL DISASTERS RISK

NATURAL DISASTERS
RISK

                     





                       ) The title of this dissertation is ‘Quantitative Study on Natural Disasters Risk Management Policy – Applying Statistical Data Analysis and Mathematical Modeling Approach –‘. This research aims to make the analysis and planning of disaster management in order to develop policies to mitigate the number of death and missing people (D&Mand/or property damages caused by natural disasters. Based on the time line of the disaster management, the analyses of the study are made in accordance with the actions taken in the three phases in disaster management, namely preparedness and mitigation, response, and recovery. In preparedness and mitigation stages, we investigate the past trend of natural disasters as well as investigate major factors to affect human casualties of natural disasters, focusing upon earthquakes and tsunamis that occurred in Japan and Indonesia. Then, we continue our investigation for measuring the damaging impacts of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE) and also evaluating the recovery performance, especially on the agricultural and manufacturing sectors. Furthermore, as one of our contributions for the disaster response activities, we propose a multi commodity transshipment network flow optimization techniques under uncertainty in order to measure the robustness of the transportation network system for the emergent situation. As the case study, we apply the model to deliver relief commodities to the affected regions due to the 2009 West Sumatra earthquake.

                              This  was motivated by a deep sense of concern for the large number of damages or casualties in the form of loss of lives and property as a result of disasters, both natural disasters and disasters caused by human error or technological failures. This research aims to learn the “nature” of disasters in order to assist the policy makers and planners who are involved in disaster and risk policy management, particulary inthe area of mitigation and preparedness, response and recovery in Japan and Indonesia. There are six objectives of this study: (i) To investigate and model the past trend of disasters with the consideration of the availability, completeness and accuracy of historical data required;
 (ii) To elucidate major factors to affect human casualties of natural disasters;
 (iii) To investigate the impact of natural disaster, i.e. the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE) and evaluating the restoration and reconstruction performance
; (iv) To develop a multi commodity transshipment network flow optimization model under uncertainty in order to measure the robustness of the transportation network system for the emergent situation;
 (v) To apply the optimization model to the response action for the actual natural disaster occurred, namely the 2009 West Sumatra earthquake; and
(vi) To propose policy recommendations regarding with the disaster management.


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